Random Tuesday Good News Update

Originally shared via e-mail (reposted here for posterity)

October 18, 2022

First, of all...BREATHE—as some of us may be feeling a bit manic by now.

Second, ignore the polls, which are literally all over the board (especially as the media is not pointing out how many of the polls in battleground states are from GOP pollsters flooding the zone—Arizona has had 10 and Nevada 6, a similar high number of skewed GOP polls in other battleground states—remember, this is the same GOP that's unreservedly lying about elections, crime, vaccines, immigration, school books, and transgender issues, etc.). 

Instead, consider ELECTIONS AND EARLY VOTING because that's when voters actually make their voices heard—which is why our Sister District Project GOTV work is so key.

What are the ELECTIONS that are positive signs for Dems in 2022?  Well, join me in the WAY back machine and then we can go from there:

1) In June of 2021, in the first Congressional race after 2020, Melanie Stansbury won in New Mexico by +25pts. In 2018, Deb Haaland (currently our first Native American Secretary of the Interior), won this district by 16+ points.

2) In October 2021, let's not forget the results of California's recall, where we won by a 61% margin, via 7.9M+ votes (200,000 more than in the 2018 election).

3) In November 2021, the GOP did win Virginia’s Governor’s seat, sticking with a trend going back to 1969 for the party in the White House—but, more importantly, they did NOT win New Jersey’s Governor seat, a trend going even further back to 1961! The fact that the non-WH party didn’t win both those states should have been the big news, not the opposite.

4) Also, in that same VA election, the GOP won only a super slim 52-seat majority in the House of Delegates, in a post-Presidential year when they should have SWEPT! 

5) In January 2022, Georgia elected two Democratic Senators (the first Black & Jewish men in the state’s history)—both were HUGE victories, but their importance was overshadowed by Jan 6.

6) In five (5) post-Dobbs Congressional House special elections, the Dems ALL outperformed Biden’s results in 2020 by 6 - 7 points:

  • June 2022, NE CD 1 - Tr*mp +15 in 2020 -> R won by +5 only

  • Early Aug 2022, MN CD 1 - Tr*mp +10 in 2020 -> R won by +4 only

  • Mid Aug 2022, NY 19 Biden +1.5 in 2020 -> Dem candidate won by +2.2 (this is a very swingy/bellwether district where polling showed R ahead before election)

  • Mid Aug 2022, NY CD 23 - Tr*mp +11 in 2020 -> R won by +6 only

  • Late Aug 2022, AK at-large-district - Tr*mp +10 -> Dem candidate won by +3 beating Palin

7) Finally, don't forget the Kansas Constitutional Amendment to allow Abortion to be Banned—it went down in flames 59 to 41 (+18), in a dark red state Tr*mp won by +15 points, plus 70% of new voter registrants in KS were women (unprecedented!).

And on that note, I'd like to point out that NONE of the polls are accounting for this gender GAP (or for young voters). Below is an analysis of new voter registration by state, contrasting the gender gap with a comparison to 2020. Unless the polls adjusted to account for this major difference (i.e., included larger samples of women), they are undercounting Dem voters.

Now, for EARLY VOTES...lots of good news, here. But the top line, in 2018 at this same point in early voting, Reps were 85,000 votes ahead of Dems. Right now, we are 3.3 million votes ahead!

If you look at straight voter registration (as not all states track voters’ party affiliation, which is why firms like TargetSmart do modeling), below is the breakdown from ElectionsProject. Also, ElectionsProject updates 3 - 4x/day vs. TargetSmart only 1 - 2x. Right now, we're at 33,039,058 total early votes, compared to 29,090,476 early votes in 2018 (which was a RECORD midterm turnout).

IMPORTANT: I am in no way predicting the outcome of these elections...but, I am strongly encouraging (urging) you NOT to get caught up with polling/pundits.

This is NOT just a typical midterm that's a referendum on the party in the White House; Dobbs, a truly criminal/traitorous former POTUS, violence as a means of political expression (Jan 6, Whitmer, Pelosi, etc.) and the Climate Crisis are all unique to this moment. Don't allow those who are consumed with horse race politics and false equivalences tell us otherwise.

One party, the Democratic, is fighting for jobs, growth & freedoms (whether it's the freedom of a woman to decide if/when/how to start/grow her own family, or the freedom of a child to learn the truth of their country's history, or the freedom of any individual to love who they love/to be who they are, and for any American to vote and have that vote count). 

The other party—if you can still call fascists that—MAGA Republicans are bent on minority rule for the wealthy few, stoking racism, nativism and sexism to distract, conquer and divide because let's face it—they have nothing but the politics of faux-aggrieved culture wars, and they do nothing but lead us into recessions, deficits & failures.

We have so much to fight for (not just fight against). And, just as Americans did in 2016 (remember, Clinton won by more than 3M votes), in 2018 when we swept, and in 2020 when we had RECORD turnout for Biden in a pandemic...we've won and can win against MAGA. These close races are all within the MOE (margin of effort).

See you all on November 8!

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