Don't Buy the Hype

Happy Day-after Thanksgiving Day—a holiday that can be filled with family/friends, but also gluttony, and which has both a complicated and obscured origin (did you know it became a national holiday in the aftermath of the Civil War?).

In an effort to avoid Black Friday’s consumerist compulsions, I’m spending today reflecting on the forces that shaped 2022’s midterm elections and their results. It feels as if the media’s been working to obscure this date in November as well, or at least to mis-color it, as there was clearly no “red” wave, let alone a tsunami.

Moreover, almost every prognosticator with an influential platform was profoundly wrong. Here’s The Hill with a slate of predictions for the Senate, the House (including by how many seats), and key Senate/Governorship races from Grover Norquist, Matt Schlapp, and CNN’s Alice Stewart, and here’s another roundup from The Week, with quotes from FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver and GOP pollster Frank Luntz. Below, a sampling of headlines before the election:

Poll after poll and pundit after pundit ignored two seismic forces that were building up in the electorate. These forces came together to produce a historic midterm for the Democratic Party.

First, they turned a blind eye to the GOP-stacked Supreme Court’s decision not simply to interpret the law by gutting Roe v. Wade—but for the first time in our nation’s history, to overturn 50 years of precedent and reverse an established constitutional right! Instead, the media simply parroted and amplified canned Republican campaign talking points on inflation and crime (ignoring the global dynamics of the former and the purely manufactured status of the latter).

Second, they ignored the existential threat the MAGA GOP (still) poses to our very democracy. Instead, they normalized a party that had criminally-conspired through 40+ frivolous lawsuits, scam audits, fake electors and then—failing these treasonous acts—coordinated a violent and deadly attack on our country…all to overturn 2020’s free and fair election, where voters overwhelmingly chose Biden by eight million votes.

So, if the election results surprised you, you’re certainly not alone. See below for the predictions from two of the media’s most quoted sources:

Thankfully for my own sanity (and emotional well being) though, earlier this year I discovered Simon Rosenberg, Christopher Bouzy, Tom Bonier, and Michael McDonald on a pre-Muskovite Twitter. Starting in late May, I began regularly tracking special election, voter registration, and early voting data that showed the midterm election would be anything BUT a red wave (if curious, you can read one of my pre-election salvos here).

Going into the midterm I was hopeful to not ONLY keep the Senate blue, but to see victories at the state level in Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—and I even entertained the possibility of holding the House. Here’s just how historic this midterm has been for the Democratic Party—the first time since 1934 that the party in the White House has not lost ANY state legislative chambers:

1. Democratic hold or majority in the Senate.

2. Democratic flips of three Governorships (Arizona, Maryland and Massachusetts).

3. Democratic flips of four state legislative chambers (Michigan House & Senate, Minnesota Senate, and Pennsylvania House1).

4. Democratic trifectas gained in four states (Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, and Minnesota).

5. Across battleground states, MAGA GOP election deniers who ran as Governors, Secretaries of State, or Attorneys General and campaigned on the goal of denying voters their votes—all lost.2

6. In every state where abortion was on the ballot, voters (Democratic, Republican and Independent) overwhelmingly supported abortion access to protect a woman’s freedoms, including to decide if, when or how to start/grow a family or seek life-saving medical treatment (California, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Montana, and Vermont).

7. There were also so many Democratic firsts in this midterm, a few below:

   1. 1st Gen Z elected to Congress in Florida.

   2. 1st transgender man in New Hampshire’s state legislature.

   3. 1st Muslim woman in Georgia’s House.

   4. Pennsylvania’s first Black Lieutenant Governor, first Latina in the state legislature, and first South Asian State Representative.

8. And, the Democratic Party saw record voter turnout in battleground states by young voters, women, and people of color.

So while there are still uncalled races in the House, don’t buy the hype when the media flips from its ‘red’ wave narrative to chastise the Democratic Party for the House majority result. Remember, the MAGA GOP (barely) took control of the House, but they were only able to do so because of their anti-American voter suppression and gerrymandering efforts, and thanks to a rigged, partisan Supreme Court majority tipping the scales of justice.

The fight to protect our freedoms is far from over, but I for one, am truly grateful for this midterm victory and all the voters (activists, volunteers, organizations, and campaigns) who made such a historic win possible!

Lastly, I’m also incredibly thankful that Biden is President, and that for the last two years, he and the Democratic-controlled the Senate and House were able to deliver.3

• Lowest unemployment in 50 years

• Lowest uninsured rate in history

• Lowest poverty rate in history

• Cost caps on prescription drugs and insulin

• Cost caps with over-the-counter hearing aids

• Student loan reform and debt relief

• First gun safety legislation since 1994

• Largest ever investment in climate action

• Unification of NATO to support Ukraine against Russia’s invasion

Of course, all of this was accomplished despite the anti-Democratic filibuster and a united GOP (who voted against everything from a fund for veterans suffering from burn pit injuries, to investment in high tech manufacturing, to efforts to stop oil companies from price gouging, and even attempts to make the super rich / giant corporations pay what they owe).

So today, I’m especially thankful for all those who are fighting for our jobs, progress and freedoms.