A Rising Tide of Good News

Tune out the noise, but don't drop the signal (i.e., follow the fundamentals)

Author

Natalie Burdick
November 03, 2025

I begin this post with an apology. I’ve been a bad, bad blogger. To make up for this, I offer this photo of Emerson…

And, as this is my first entry (checks her beehiiv dashboard) since October 21, 2024 <deep sigh>, I want to let you know I am writing with nothing but positive tidings—call it an early gift for the holidays. And unless you’ve been hiding under a rock since January (which, granted, some people have chosen as their coping mechanism1 to this fascist dystopia), boy could we use some good news these days.

Tomorrow, November 4 is election day.

Not just the statewide contests in Virginia and New Jersey, or California’s Prop 50 ballot measure, but also critical judicial races in Pennsylvania, numerous mayoral races beyond Mamdani’s transformative race in New York, referendums on critical voting rights, public education, and transit, and more than two dozen special elections in state legislative and congressional races3 .

As a longtime volunteer with Sister District Project, state legislative races hold a special place in my heart. So that’s where I’m beginning my Top 5 Good News Fundamentals—the ones that tell me voters all across the country will resoundingly mark their ballots for the most democratic options tomorrow . To be clear, what I’m expecting is that Democratic candidates will win in CA, NJ, NY, PA, VA and beyond.

Why? In order to protect the freedoms that have been under assault by a 34X-convicted felon, jury-determined rapist, and twice-impeached traitor, who lead a violent and deadly attack against our country on #Jan6. The wannabe king who has been speed-reading his way through the Authoritarian Playbook since the corrupt MAGA Justice majority on the Roberts Court gave him a get-out-of-jail free card.

  1. Since January 2025, in 44(!) special elections (39 state legislative, four congressional and a very significant judicial race in Wisconsin that Susan Crawford won by a record landslide4 ), voters have elected candidates who have a ‘D’ next to their names, by an average of 15 points more than they voted for Harris in 2024. This is especially significant when compared to the same number of races at this point in 2017. Then, Dems averaged a 12 point over performance to Clinton’s 2016 results—presaging the historic 2018 blue wave. And yes, special elections have always been highly correlated2 to general election results (with one exception; hit me up if you’re actually curious).

  1. Since January 2025, not only have we now had the LARGEST single day of protest in history with #NoKings on October 18, but total protests this year have outnumbered those in 2017 by a factor of three. Moreover, at the peak of protesting in 2020 with the Black Lives Matter marches, the highest number of participating counties was 40%; in 2025 (and this is before October’s #NoKings), it had already reached 60%! This reflects the fact that in 2025, we’re seeing the most geographically widespread protests in American history. Add to that, data showing we’ve held non-stop protests for four consecutive months (June to Sept 2025) in 20% of counties. Finally, and most significantly, from April to August in 2025, the median protest county5 cast more votes in 2024 for Tr*mp than for Harris (this is a reversal of 2017, where protests were heavily concentrated in the counties Harris won).

  1. Since January 2025, polling for Tr*mp approvals on every single measure have consistently and precipitously been dropping. It is clear: Americans are counting the ways the ways they can show they don’t approve of the Grifter in Chief and his MAGA sycophants—whether through voting in 44 elections in red, blue, and purple states, showing up and speaking out at rallies in all 50 Congressional districts, responding via surveys and polls, or boycotting Target, Tesla, ABC/Sinclair/Nexstar, and now Spotify.

Considering below, I think I’ll keep West Virginia and Wyoming off my travel bucket list for now.

The saying goes “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” Though its true origin has been lost to ebbs and flow of time, for me, statistics rarely have value in isolation—it is context/relative standing to other data points and information, across different places, times, axes etc., that allow them to lend actual meaning and truth.

Below is a clear reminder that 12 million more Americans have voted for someone NOT Tr*mp since 2016! He’s literally NEVER won even 50% of the popular vote, let alone an actual majority in any election—because there truly are far MORE of us who share the values of justice, equity, fairness, and freedoms, than oppose those values. The fact that he’s happily extorting and grifting his way (as well as threatening the very stability of world peace and safety and security here at home) into the history books from our White House, even as he illegally bulldozes part of it to create a tacky, gilded throne room, demonstrates how fundamental a failure the Electoral College is to our ‘democracy.’

  1. Since January 2025, we’ve seen Americans steadily moving away from Tr*mp’s MAGA Republican grip. Groups that the media loudly proclaimed (on the basis of a single election in 2024) were newly won over, have been moving away—particularly young and Latino voters.

Favorability has also fallen among Hispanic adults since the beginning of the year, a new AP-NORC poll shows: 

AP News on October 24, 2025

But it’s not just shifting trends among specific demographics, it’s also overall views on salient issues like the GOP-led shutdown choking our access to healthcare and food (aka the Mike Johnson-sponsored vacation in the House to avoid releasing the Epstein Files), Tru*mp’s illegal sales taxes on imports (tariffs), and the dangerous invasion and occupation7  of our cities by the military and ICE under Miller, Noem, and Bondi.

Notably, on the shutdown, Independents blame Tr*mp and the Republicans by a 2-to-1 margin (46% to 23%)—given one party currently controls the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives.

Independents blame Tr*mp and Republicans for the shutdown by a 2-to-1 margin

On the tariffs Tr*mp started rolling out in April, per a recent survey by GreyOrange, more than 3 out of 4 store managers (76%) report seeing out-of-stocks and/or empty shelves.

Half of those store managers say that HQ has informed them tariffs will drive prices up at their stores, while 47% say they’ve been told them to expect delays or reduced inventory, and 26% have also been told to reduce their workforces or cut hours.

  1. And finally, since January 2025, the opposition to Tr*mp’s fascist power grab is steadily growing stronger and stronger. How do I know? Because back in March, I started tracking stories weekly in a spreadsheet about those people (as Peter sings) who are actually DOing SOMETHING!

Just as Tr*mp and his MAGA enablers in the Republican party have been following the Authoritarian Playbook loved by Putin, Orban, Erdogan, and others, at least 130,000+ of my neighbors and I have been learning about another playbook—one that we the people have to stop, and ultimately defeat, this dictator-wannabe. Because as important as elections are, we won’t be able to vote our way out of this, if Tr*mp and MAGA succeed at throwing free and fair elections under the bus8 .

After attending a 3-part training series online and an 800+ person event in Oakland, Peter and I hosted a series of brunch gatherings with more than 45 friends and neighbors. Through these events I’ve been educating myself on the power of nonviolent, civil resistance and building community locally to become active as part of the 3.5%.

The 3.5% rule of thumb, is a social science finding based on the study of 320+ movements over the last 120 years by political scientists Erica Chenoweth and Maria J. Stephan. It illustrates that—when a small percentage of a nation’s population successfully commits to sustained, non-violent action—everyday people can and have repeatedly won against the forces of oppression. How? By strategically targeting what are called the “pillars of support,”6 the social structures, which if weakened, prevent authoritarian regimes from functioning. The means of targeting those support structures, are the actions I’m tracking in my spreadsheet.

They involve one of the three following tactics: protests, boycotts, and building alternatives.

In March, I had one entry in my spreadsheet, Cory Booker’s record-setting speech, an act of incredible endurance as protest…in October, I had nearly 40 for just this past month. Over the holidays, I plan to share a few highlights from my Mass Defiance & Opposition Wins tracker (including, I expect, the huge bellwether election wins tomorrow).

At the end of the day, my core belief is that regardless of where you live, where you came from, or how much you have in our wallet (unless you happen to be on of the 400+ billionaires who together hold more wealth than over 50% of all Americans!) that you and I, and the overwhelming majority of Americans all share the same values, the most salient of all, being our freedoms.

To you dear reader, if you believe that we all deserve the freedom to decide if/when/how to start or grow a family, the freedom to afford healthcare for our children and/or aging parents, the freedom to move in order to live near good schools, jobs, and family, the freedom to not merely survive, but thrive by earning a living wage for our work, the freedom to love whomever we love, the freedom to be who we dream of being, and perhaps most fundamentally, the freedom to make our voices heard on the streets or at the ballot box—then you too, are part of the super majority of Americans who oppose MAGA and their racism, nativism, sexism, and LGBTQ-hatred. They’ve normalized and broadcast their cruelty to distract and divide us, only so a wealthy, well-connected few don’t have to pay the taxes they owe, or be held accountable for their crimes against us.

So, as I wrap up this long, long delayed post, I leave you with two of my favorite quotes and a photo from #NoKings here in San Francisco.

❝

If everyone shows just a little bit of courage, than no one has to be a hero.

Delaware Congressperson Sarah McBride’s Dad
❝

We are living through a revolt against the future; the future will prevail.

Author Anand Giridharadas, The Ink

See if you can spot me.

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